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MINERAL RESOURCES: AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

The economies of industrialized countries require the extraction and processing of large amounts of minerals to make products. Most of these developed countries rely on the mineral reserves in developing countries, having long since exhausted their own supplies. But as developing countries become more industrialized, their own mineral requirements increase correspondingly, adding further pressure to an already dwindling supply.

U.S. and World Use

At one time, most of the developed nations had rich resource bases, including abundant mineral deposits that enabled them to industrialize. In the process of industrialization, they have largely depleted their domestic reserves of minerals so that they must increasingly turn to developing countries. This is particularly true for Europe, Japan, and, to a lesser extent, the United States.

As with the consumption of other natural resources, there is a large difference in consumption of minerals between developed and developing countries. Four countries—the united States, Japan, the former Soviet Union, and Germany— consume approximately three-fourths of many of the world's metals. In other words, about 14 percent of the world's population consumes more than 70 percent of some important minerals. It is so simplistic, however, to divide the world into two groups, the mineral consumers (developed countries) and the mineral producers (developing countries). For one thing, four of the world's top five mineral producers are developed countries: the United States, Canada, Australia, and the former Soviet Union. Further more, many developing countries lack any significant mineral deposits.

Because industrialization increases the demand for minerals, countries that at one time met their mineral needs with domestic supplies become increasingly reliant on foreign supplies as development occurs. South Korea is one such nation. During the 1950s it exported iron, copper, and other minerals. South Korea experienced dramatic economic growth from the 1960s to the present and, as a result, must import iron and copper to meet its needs.

Distribution versus Consumption

Chromium, a metallic element, provides a useful example of worldwide versus national distribution and consumption. Chromium is used to make vivid red, orange, yellow and green pigments for paints, chrome plate, and (combined with other metals) certain types of hard steel. There is no substitute for chromium in many of its important applications, including jet engine parts. Therefore, industrialized nations that lack significant chromium deposits, such as the United States, must import essentially all of their chromium. South Africa is one of only a few countries with significant deposits of chromium. Zimbabwe and Turkey also export chromium. Albania and the former Soviet Union neither produce significant amounts of chromium but do nor export it. Although worldwide reserves of chromium are adequate for the immediate future, the United State and other industrialized countries are utterly dependent on few

United States and several other industrialized countries arc utterly dependent on a few, often politically volatile, countries for their chromium sup-plies.

Many industrialized nations have stockpiled strategically important minerals to reduce their dependence on politically unstahle suppliers. The United States and others have stockpiles of such metals as titanium, tin, manganese, chromium, platinum, and cobalt, mainly because these metals are critically important to industry and defense. The stockpiles are supposed to he large enough to provide strategic metals fur a period of three years.

Will We Run Out of Important Minerals?

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times are often meaningless because it is extremely difficult to forecast future mineral supplies. In the 1970s, projections of escalating demand and impending shortages of many important minerals were commonplace. None of these shortages actually mmeruilizcd, in part because metals in many products were replaced by plastics, synthetic polymers, ceramics, and othet materials, and in part because a worldwide economic slump resulted in lowet consumption of minerals. Today on the world market there is even a glut of some minerals, which has caused their value to spiral downward. However, there is always the possibility that changes in the worldwide economic situation will contribute to mincnil shortages.

One of the most significant economic factors in mineral production is the cost of energy. Mining and refining of minerals require a great deal of energy, particularly if the mineral is being refined

from low-grade ore. For example, gold is currently being extracted from low-grade ores in Nevada. For every 0.9 metric ton (2,000 Ib) of rock that is dug and crushed, as little as 0.7 g (0.025 oz) of gold is refined. Huge amounts of energy are required to dig and crush countless tons of rock. Higher energy prices result in higher production costs, which may cause the market price of minerals to increase. In turn, the higher prices decrease mineral consumption, extending supplies.

Economic factors aside, prediction of future mineral needs is also difficult because it is impossible to know when or if there will be new discoveries of mineral reserves or replacements for minerals (such as plastics). It is also impossible to know when or if new technological developments will make it economically feasible to extract minerals from low-grade ores.

With these reservations in mind, it is safe to say that, assuming present rates of consumption, minerals now in short supply will probably last between 20 and 100 years. During your lifetime, then, several important minerals will become increasingly scarce, and it is likely that current world reserve of silver, copper, mercury, tungsten, and tin will he exhausted.

Another reasonable projection is that the prices of even relatively plentiful minerals, such as iron and aluminum, will increase during your lifetime. The depletion of large, rich, and easily accessible deposits of these metals will require mining and refining of low-grade ores, which will be more expensive.